States like California in the U.S. see ash falling like rain annually due to wildfires. Alaska, known for its abundant wildlife had to close Denali National Park in Anchorage while crews fought a wildfire over the weekend. Residents of other states where the risk of wildfires is “very low” would be shocked to experience the ash coating on their vehicles if they’re in the path of a wildfire.
These weather-related events are brutal and unforgiving. FEMA has put together a Wildfire Risk Rating, which informs the general public, the government, and private businesses of the natural hazard risk associated with the area. With this information, the government can develop new standards, businesses can set up hazard mitigation plans, and homeowners and renters can put together their own emergency plans to keep their families, friends, and pets safe.
When calculating the expected annual loss of a wildfire, several factors come into play. The first is exposure, which refers to the value of buildings and the population. The second is the annualized frequency, which identifies how often a wildfire might occur per year. The third and last factor is the historic loss ratio, which is an estimation of lost value.
Together, these three factors inform the expected annual loss of wildfires each year. This same formula is used for other natural hazards (though the calculations are made independently). Wildfires occur in different environments, including prairies, shrub lands, grasslands, and forests. They can leave extensive damage in their wake—not just to wildlife but to the neighborhoods locals call home. (Also Read: This Is the Coastal City With the Greatest Risk of Flooding)
Methodology
To determine the cities with the highest wildfire risk, 24/7 Tempo reviewed data on natural hazard risk for U.S. census tracts from the March 2023 FEMA National Risk Indexdataset. Cities were ranked based on the average wildfire risk index score for all census tracts within their borders. Data were aggregated from the census tract level to the city level using spatial boundary definitions from the U.S. Census Bureau’s TIGER/Line program. Supplemental data on the total value of all owner-occupied homes and population are from the U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community Survey. Only places with at least 25,000 residents were considered.
50. Weston, FL
- FEMA wildfire risk index score: 92.4/100
- Total value of owner-occupied homes: $10.3 billion
- Population change, 2017 to 2022: -2.5%
- Total population: 68,029
49. Palm Bay, FL
- FEMA wildfire risk index score: 92.5/100
- Total value of owner-occupied homes: $8.1 billion
- Population change, 2017 to 2022: +12.7%
- Total population: 121,513
48. Clermont, FL
- FEMA wildfire risk index score: 92.6/100
- Total value of owner-occupied homes: $3.7 billion
- Population change, 2017 to 2022: +34.3%
- Total population: 43,266
47. Redmond, OR
- FEMA wildfire risk index score: 92.6/100
- Total value of owner-occupied homes: $3.2 billion
- Population change, 2017 to 2022: +20.0%
- Total population: 34,191
46. Lakewood Ranch, FL
- FEMA wildfire risk index score: 92.6/100
- Total value of owner-occupied homes: $7.3 billion
- Population change, 2017 to 2022: NA
- Total population: 34,346
45. Elk River, MN
- FEMA wildfire risk index score: 92.7/100
- Total value of owner-occupied homes: $2.6 billion
- Population change, 2017 to 2022: +8.4%
- Total population: 25,936
44. Castle Rock, CO
- FEMA wildfire risk index score: 92.7/100
- Total value of owner-occupied homes: $12.3 billion
- Population change, 2017 to 2022: +29.3%
- Total population: 74,065
43. Bentonville, AR
- FEMA wildfire risk index score: 92.7/100
- Total value of owner-occupied homes: $4.1 billion
- Population change, 2017 to 2022: +22.2%
- Total population: 54,513
42. Immokalee, FL
- FEMA wildfire risk index score: 92.7/100
- Total value of owner-occupied homes: $0.6 million
- Population change, 2017 to 2022: +8.0%
- Total population: 27,753
41. Winter Garden, FL
- FEMA wildfire risk index score: 92.9/100
- Total value of owner-occupied homes: $4.5 billion
- Population change, 2017 to 2022: +14.0%
- Total population: 46,518
40. Perris, CA
- FEMA wildfire risk index score: 93.1/100
- Total value of owner-occupied homes: $5.0 billion
- Population change, 2017 to 2022: +5.2%
- Total population: 78,881
39. Bluffton, SC
- FEMA wildfire risk index score: 93.2/100
- Total value of owner-occupied homes: $4.7 billion
- Population change, 2017 to 2022: +71.1%
- Total population: 29,375
38. Big Spring, TX
- FEMA wildfire risk index score: 93.6/100
- Total value of owner-occupied homes: $0.8 million
- Population change, 2017 to 2022: -8.2%
- Total population: 25,949
37. Poinciana, FL
- FEMA wildfire risk index score: 93.6/100
- Total value of owner-occupied homes: $4.3 billion
- Population change, 2017 to 2022: +4.3%
- Total population: 69,311
36. Drexel Heights, AZ
- FEMA wildfire risk index score: 93.8/100
- Total value of owner-occupied homes: $1.8 billion
- Population change, 2017 to 2022: +7.3%
- Total population: 30,254
35. Carson City, NV
- FEMA wildfire risk index score: 94.0/100
- Total value of owner-occupied homes: $6.1 billion
- Population change, 2017 to 2022: +7.4%
- Total population: 58,249
34. Hesperia, CA
- FEMA wildfire risk index score: 94.0/100
- Total value of owner-occupied homes: $6.6 billion
- Population change, 2017 to 2022: +7.2%
- Total population: 99,878
33. Apple Valley, CA
- FEMA wildfire risk index score: 94.1/100
- Total value of owner-occupied homes: $6.9 billion
- Population change, 2017 to 2022: +5.1%
- Total population: 75,603
32. Eagle, ID
- FEMA wildfire risk index score: 94.3/100
- Total value of owner-occupied homes: $7.5 billion
- Population change, 2017 to 2022: +29.2%
- Total population: 30,635
31. Buckeye, AZ
- FEMA wildfire risk index score: 94.4/100
- Total value of owner-occupied homes: $8.7 billion
- Population change, 2017 to 2022: +53.1%
- Total population: 95,042
30. San Jacinto, CA
- FEMA wildfire risk index score: 94.5/100
- Total value of owner-occupied homes: $3.8 billion
- Population change, 2017 to 2022: +15.2%
- Total population: 54,077
29. New Smyrna Beach, FL
- FEMA wildfire risk index score: 94.6/100
- Total value of owner-occupied homes: $4.6 billion
- Population change, 2017 to 2022: +21.3%
- Total population: 30,449
28. Weatherford, TX
- FEMA wildfire risk index score: 95.0/100
- Total value of owner-occupied homes: $2.2 billion
- Population change, 2017 to 2022: +11.6%
- Total population: 32,168
27. Cedar City, UT
- FEMA wildfire risk index score: 95.0/100
- Total value of owner-occupied homes: $2.1 billion
- Population change, 2017 to 2022: +18.5%
- Total population: 35,812
26. Prescott Valley, AZ
- FEMA wildfire risk index score: 95.1/100
- Total value of owner-occupied homes: $4.8 billion
- Population change, 2017 to 2022: +12.0%
- Total population: 47,015
25. Oro Valley, AZ
- FEMA wildfire risk index score: 95.1/100
- Total value of owner-occupied homes: $7.6 billion
- Population change, 2017 to 2022: +9.7%
- Total population: 47,053
24. Herriman, UT
- FEMA wildfire risk index score: 95.1/100
- Total value of owner-occupied homes: $7.1 billion
- Population change, 2017 to 2022: +73.0%
- Total population: 55,301
23. Haines City, FL
- FEMA wildfire risk index score: 95.2/100
- Total value of owner-occupied homes: $1.4 billion
- Population change, 2017 to 2022: +26.7%
- Total population: 28,922
22. Yucaipa, CA
- FEMA wildfire risk index score: 95.6/100
- Total value of owner-occupied homes: $5.8 billion
- Population change, 2017 to 2022: +2.4%
- Total population: 54,428
21. Four Corners, FL
- FEMA wildfire risk index score: 95.6/100
- Total value of owner-occupied homes: $3.2 billion
- Population change, 2017 to 2022: +51.0%
- Total population: 56,537
20. Adelanto, CA
- FEMA wildfire risk index score: 95.8/100
- Total value of owner-occupied homes: $1.6 billion
- Population change, 2017 to 2022: +15.5%
- Total population: 37,960
19. West Odessa, TX
- FEMA wildfire risk index score: 96.0/100
- Total value of owner-occupied homes: $1.4 billion
- Population change, 2017 to 2022: +19.9%
- Total population: 30,904
18. Fish Hawk, FL
- FEMA wildfire risk index score: 96.2/100
- Total value of owner-occupied homes: $3.0 billion
- Population change, 2017 to 2022: +42.3%
- Total population: 25,179
17. Lake Elsinore, CA
- FEMA wildfire risk index score: 96.3/100
- Total value of owner-occupied homes: $6.8 billion
- Population change, 2017 to 2022: +12.5%
- Total population: 69,993
16. Marana, AZ
- FEMA wildfire risk index score: 96.4/100
- Total value of owner-occupied homes: $6.4 billion
- Population change, 2017 to 2022: +25.9%
- Total population: 52,542
15. Prescott, AZ
- FEMA wildfire risk index score: 96.5/100
- Total value of owner-occupied homes: $7.6 billion
- Population change, 2017 to 2022: +11.1%
- Total population: 46,054
14. Butte-Silver Bow, MT
- FEMA wildfire risk index score: 96.6/100
- Total value of owner-occupied homes: $2.7 billion
- Population change, 2017 to 2022: +3.0%
- Total population: 34,638
13. French Valley, CA
- FEMA wildfire risk index score: 97.0/100
- Total value of owner-occupied homes: $6.2 billion
- Population change, 2017 to 2022: +31.5%
- Total population: 41,239
12. El Dorado Hills, CA
- FEMA wildfire risk index score: 97.4/100
- Total value of owner-occupied homes: $13.6 billion
- Population change, 2017 to 2022: +8.8%
- Total population: 49,082
11. Sahuarita, AZ
- FEMA wildfire risk index score: 97.7/100
- Total value of owner-occupied homes: $3.2 billion
- Population change, 2017 to 2022: +21.2%
- Total population: 34,238
10. Kingman, AZ
- FEMA wildfire risk index score: 97.9/100
- Total value of owner-occupied homes: $2.5 billion
- Population change, 2017 to 2022: +14.5%
- Total population: 33,052
9. St. George, UT
- FEMA wildfire risk index score: 98.4/100
- Total value of owner-occupied homes: $11.1 billion
- Population change, 2017 to 2022: +20.2%
- Total population: 96,174
8. Temescal Valley, CA
- FEMA wildfire risk index score: 98.6/100
- Total value of owner-occupied homes: $5.1 billion
- Population change, 2017 to 2022: +11.1%
- Total population: 28,227
7. Wildomar, CA
- FEMA wildfire risk index score: 98.8/100
- Total value of owner-occupied homes: $4.0 billion
- Population change, 2017 to 2022: +3.7%
- Total population: 36,822
6. Fallbrook, CA
- FEMA wildfire risk index score: 98.8/100
- Total value of owner-occupied homes: $4.9 billion
- Population change, 2017 to 2022: +8.3%
- Total population: 33,710
5. Horizon West, FL
- FEMA wildfire risk index score: 99.0/100
- Total value of owner-occupied homes: $6.0 billion
- Population change, 2017 to 2022: +131.0%
- Total population: 58,595
4. Eagle Mountain, UT
- FEMA wildfire risk index score: 99.3/100
- Total value of owner-occupied homes: $4.4 billion
- Population change, 2017 to 2022: +66.0%
- Total population: 46,109
3. Beaumont, CA
- FEMA wildfire risk index score: 99.5/100
- Total value of owner-occupied homes: $5.5 billion
- Population change, 2017 to 2022: +22.7%
- Total population: 53,544
2. Washington, UT
- FEMA wildfire risk index score: 99.5/100
- Total value of owner-occupied homes: $3.6 billion
- Population change, 2017 to 2022: +20.3%
- Total population: 29,161
1. Banning, CA
- FEMA wildfire risk index score: 99.6/100
- Total value of owner-occupied homes: $2.3 billion
- Population change, 2017 to 2022: -2.9%
- Total population: 29,929