This City Has Nearly the Worst Possible Score for Wildfire Risk

States like California in the U.S. see ash falling like rain annually due to wildfires. Alaska, known for its abundant wildlife had to close Denali National Park in Anchorage while crews fought a wildfire over the weekend. Residents of other states where the risk of wildfires is “very low” would be shocked to experience the ash coating on their vehicles if they’re in the path of a wildfire.

These weather-related events are brutal and unforgiving. FEMA has put together a Wildfire Risk Rating, which informs the general public, the government, and private businesses of the natural hazard risk associated with the area. With this information, the government can develop new standards, businesses can set up hazard mitigation plans, and homeowners and renters can put together their own emergency plans to keep their families, friends, and pets safe.

When calculating the expected annual loss of a wildfire, several factors come into play. The first is exposure, which refers to the value of buildings and the population. The second is the annualized frequency, which identifies how often a wildfire might occur per year. The third and last factor is the historic loss ratio, which is an estimation of lost value.

Together, these three factors inform the expected annual loss of wildfires each year. This same formula is used for other natural hazards (though the calculations are made independently). Wildfires occur in different environments, including prairies, shrub lands, grasslands, and forests. They can leave extensive damage in their wake—not just to wildlife but to the neighborhoods locals call home. (Also Read: This Is the Coastal City With the Greatest Risk of Flooding)

To determine the cities with the highest wildfire risk, 24/7 Tempo reviewed data on natural hazard risk for U.S. census tracts from the March 2023 FEMA National Risk Index dataset. Cities were ranked based on the average wildfire risk index score for all census tracts within their borders. Data were aggregated from the census tract level to the city level using spatial boundary definitions from the U.S. Census Bureau’s TIGER/Line program. Supplemental data on the total value of all owner-occupied homes and population are from the U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community Survey. Only places with at least 25,000 residents were considered.

50. Weston, FL

FEMA wildfire risk index score: 92.4/100
Total value of owner-occupied homes: $10.3 billion
Population change, 2017 to 2022: -2.5%
Total population: 68,029

49. Palm Bay, FL

FEMA wildfire risk index score: 92.5/100
Total value of owner-occupied homes: $8.1 billion
Population change, 2017 to 2022: +12.7%
Total population: 121,513

48. Clermont, FL

FEMA wildfire risk index score: 92.6/100
Total value of owner-occupied homes: $3.7 billion
Population change, 2017 to 2022: +34.3%
Total population: 43,266

47. Redmond, OR

FEMA wildfire risk index score: 92.6/100
Total value of owner-occupied homes: $3.2 billion
Population change, 2017 to 2022: +20.0%
Total population: 34,191

46. Lakewood Ranch, FL

FEMA wildfire risk index score: 92.6/100
Total value of owner-occupied homes: $7.3 billion
Population change, 2017 to 2022: NA
Total population: 34,346

45. Elk River, MN

FEMA wildfire risk index score: 92.7/100
Total value of owner-occupied homes: $2.6 billion
Population change, 2017 to 2022: +8.4%
Total population: 25,936

44. Castle Rock, CO

FEMA wildfire risk index score: 92.7/100
Total value of owner-occupied homes: $12.3 billion
Population change, 2017 to 2022: +29.3%
Total population: 74,065

43. Bentonville, AR

FEMA wildfire risk index score: 92.7/100
Total value of owner-occupied homes: $4.1 billion
Population change, 2017 to 2022: +22.2%
Total population: 54,513

42. Immokalee, FL

FEMA wildfire risk index score: 92.7/100
Total value of owner-occupied homes: $0.6 million
Population change, 2017 to 2022: +8.0%
Total population: 27,753

41. Winter Garden, FL

FEMA wildfire risk index score: 92.9/100
Total value of owner-occupied homes: $4.5 billion
Population change, 2017 to 2022: +14.0%
Total population: 46,518

40. Perris, CA

FEMA wildfire risk index score: 93.1/100
Total value of owner-occupied homes: $5.0 billion
Population change, 2017 to 2022: +5.2%
Total population: 78,881

39. Bluffton, SC

FEMA wildfire risk index score: 93.2/100
Total value of owner-occupied homes: $4.7 billion
Population change, 2017 to 2022: +71.1%
Total population: 29,375

38. Big Spring, TX

FEMA wildfire risk index score: 93.6/100
Total value of owner-occupied homes: $0.8 million
Population change, 2017 to 2022: -8.2%
Total population: 25,949

37. Poinciana, FL

FEMA wildfire risk index score: 93.6/100
Total value of owner-occupied homes: $4.3 billion
Population change, 2017 to 2022: +4.3%
Total population: 69,311

36. Drexel Heights, AZ

FEMA wildfire risk index score: 93.8/100
Total value of owner-occupied homes: $1.8 billion
Population change, 2017 to 2022: +7.3%
Total population: 30,254

35. Carson City, NV

FEMA wildfire risk index score: 94.0/100
Total value of owner-occupied homes: $6.1 billion
Population change, 2017 to 2022: +7.4%
Total population: 58,249

34. Hesperia, CA

FEMA wildfire risk index score: 94.0/100
Total value of owner-occupied homes: $6.6 billion
Population change, 2017 to 2022: +7.2%
Total population: 99,878

33. Apple Valley, CA

FEMA wildfire risk index score: 94.1/100
Total value of owner-occupied homes: $6.9 billion
Population change, 2017 to 2022: +5.1%
Total population: 75,603

32. Eagle, ID

FEMA wildfire risk index score: 94.3/100
Total value of owner-occupied homes: $7.5 billion
Population change, 2017 to 2022: +29.2%
Total population: 30,635

31. Buckeye, AZ

FEMA wildfire risk index score: 94.4/100
Total value of owner-occupied homes: $8.7 billion
Population change, 2017 to 2022: +53.1%
Total population: 95,042

30. San Jacinto, CA

FEMA wildfire risk index score: 94.5/100
Total value of owner-occupied homes: $3.8 billion
Population change, 2017 to 2022: +15.2%
Total population: 54,077

29. New Smyrna Beach, FL

FEMA wildfire risk index score: 94.6/100
Total value of owner-occupied homes: $4.6 billion
Population change, 2017 to 2022: +21.3%
Total population: 30,449

28. Weatherford, TX

FEMA wildfire risk index score: 95.0/100
Total value of owner-occupied homes: $2.2 billion
Population change, 2017 to 2022: +11.6%
Total population: 32,168

27. Cedar City, UT

FEMA wildfire risk index score: 95.0/100
Total value of owner-occupied homes: $2.1 billion
Population change, 2017 to 2022: +18.5%
Total population: 35,812

26. Prescott Valley, AZ

FEMA wildfire risk index score: 95.1/100
Total value of owner-occupied homes: $4.8 billion
Population change, 2017 to 2022: +12.0%
Total population: 47,015

25. Oro Valley, AZ

FEMA wildfire risk index score: 95.1/100
Total value of owner-occupied homes: $7.6 billion
Population change, 2017 to 2022: +9.7%
Total population: 47,053

24. Herriman, UT

FEMA wildfire risk index score: 95.1/100
Total value of owner-occupied homes: $7.1 billion
Population change, 2017 to 2022: +73.0%
Total population: 55,301

23. Haines City, FL

FEMA wildfire risk index score: 95.2/100
Total value of owner-occupied homes: $1.4 billion
Population change, 2017 to 2022: +26.7%
Total population: 28,922

22. Yucaipa, CA

FEMA wildfire risk index score: 95.6/100
Total value of owner-occupied homes: $5.8 billion
Population change, 2017 to 2022: +2.4%
Total population: 54,428

21. Four Corners, FL

FEMA wildfire risk index score: 95.6/100
Total value of owner-occupied homes: $3.2 billion
Population change, 2017 to 2022: +51.0%
Total population: 56,537

20. Adelanto, CA

FEMA wildfire risk index score: 95.8/100
Total value of owner-occupied homes: $1.6 billion
Population change, 2017 to 2022: +15.5%
Total population: 37,960

19. West Odessa, TX

FEMA wildfire risk index score: 96.0/100
Total value of owner-occupied homes: $1.4 billion
Population change, 2017 to 2022: +19.9%
Total population: 30,904

18. Fish Hawk, FL

FEMA wildfire risk index score: 96.2/100
Total value of owner-occupied homes: $3.0 billion
Population change, 2017 to 2022: +42.3%
Total population: 25,179

17. Lake Elsinore, CA

FEMA wildfire risk index score: 96.3/100
Total value of owner-occupied homes: $6.8 billion
Population change, 2017 to 2022: +12.5%
Total population: 69,993

16. Marana, AZ

FEMA wildfire risk index score: 96.4/100
Total value of owner-occupied homes: $6.4 billion
Population change, 2017 to 2022: +25.9%
Total population: 52,542

15. Prescott, AZ

FEMA wildfire risk index score: 96.5/100
Total value of owner-occupied homes: $7.6 billion
Population change, 2017 to 2022: +11.1%
Total population: 46,054

14. Butte-Silver Bow, MT

FEMA wildfire risk index score: 96.6/100
Total value of owner-occupied homes: $2.7 billion
Population change, 2017 to 2022: +3.0%
Total population: 34,638

13. French Valley, CA

FEMA wildfire risk index score: 97.0/100
Total value of owner-occupied homes: $6.2 billion
Population change, 2017 to 2022: +31.5%
Total population: 41,239

12. El Dorado Hills, CA

FEMA wildfire risk index score: 97.4/100
Total value of owner-occupied homes: $13.6 billion
Population change, 2017 to 2022: +8.8%
Total population: 49,082

11. Sahuarita, AZ

FEMA wildfire risk index score: 97.7/100
Total value of owner-occupied homes: $3.2 billion
Population change, 2017 to 2022: +21.2%
Total population: 34,238

10. Kingman, AZ

FEMA wildfire risk index score: 97.9/100
Total value of owner-occupied homes: $2.5 billion
Population change, 2017 to 2022: +14.5%
Total population: 33,052

9. St. George, UT

FEMA wildfire risk index score: 98.4/100
Total value of owner-occupied homes: $11.1 billion
Population change, 2017 to 2022: +20.2%
Total population: 96,174

8. Temescal Valley, CA

FEMA wildfire risk index score: 98.6/100
Total value of owner-occupied homes: $5.1 billion
Population change, 2017 to 2022: +11.1%
Total population: 28,227

7. Wildomar, CA

FEMA wildfire risk index score: 98.8/100
Total value of owner-occupied homes: $4.0 billion
Population change, 2017 to 2022: +3.7%
Total population: 36,822

6. Fallbrook, CA

FEMA wildfire risk index score: 98.8/100
Total value of owner-occupied homes: $4.9 billion
Population change, 2017 to 2022: +8.3%
Total population: 33,710

5. Horizon West, FL

FEMA wildfire risk index score: 99.0/100
Total value of owner-occupied homes: $6.0 billion
Population change, 2017 to 2022: +131.0%
Total population: 58,595

4. Eagle Mountain, UT

FEMA wildfire risk index score: 99.3/100
Total value of owner-occupied homes: $4.4 billion
Population change, 2017 to 2022: +66.0%
Total population: 46,109

3. Beaumont, CA

FEMA wildfire risk index score: 99.5/100
Total value of owner-occupied homes: $5.5 billion
Population change, 2017 to 2022: +22.7%
Total population: 53,544

2. Washington, UT

FEMA wildfire risk index score: 99.5/100
Total value of owner-occupied homes: $3.6 billion
Population change, 2017 to 2022: +20.3%
Total population: 29,161

1. Banning, CA

FEMA wildfire risk index score: 99.6/100
Total value of owner-occupied homes: $2.3 billion
Population change, 2017 to 2022: -2.9%
Total population: 29,929