After Week 6, What Chance Does Your Team Have to Win the Super Bowl?

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Week six of the 2021 NFL season provided fans with some tantalizing matchups, giving some of the league’s top teams huge tests early in the season. The Los Angeles Chargers and Baltimore Ravens both entered their game at 4-1, but it was Baltimore that walked away with the win, as they rolled over the Chargers 34-6.

The Buffalo Bills looked like the NFL’s team to beat after week five, but they came up short against the Tennessee Titans on Monday Night Football, losing 34-31. The Arizona Cardinals remain the league’s lone undefeated team, cruising by the Cleveland Browns 37-14 — but they still aren’t the team most likely to win the Super Bowl.

To determine how each NFL team will finish the 2021 season, 24/7 Tempo reviewed FiveThirtyEight’s 2021 NFL Predictions, which are based on 50,000 simulated games and are updated after every game. The predictions are as of Oct. 19, 2021, and teams are ranked by their projected chance of winning the Super Bowl. Supplemental data came from Pro Football Reference.

Though there is still a long way to go in the NFL season, football fans are getting a clearer picture of which teams are truly Super Bowl contenders. Of the 32 teams, most have a 1% or smaller chance of winning it all, according to FiveThirtyEight.

Teams like the Carolina Panthers and Denver Broncos that started well have now fallen back to the pack, while teams like the Cardinals and Dallas Cowboys that struggled in 2020 have proven they are postseason threats with big wins over quality opponents, thanks to big games from their young quarterbacks. This is the best quarterback in each team’s history.