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Before Week 9, This Is Every NFL Team’s Chance To Win the Super Bowl

Before Week 9, This Is Every NFL Team’s Chance To Win the Super Bowl

In week 8 of the 2021 NFL season, several top teams lost in surprising fashion, while a few others lost key players. The Arizona Cardinals were the last undefeated team in the NFL before losing in a wild contest on Thursday Night to the Green Bay Packers. The Cincinnati Bengals were on top of the AFC but lost a 34-31 shocker to the New York Jets and their backup QB Mike White.

Elsewhere, the Tennessee Titans beat the Indianapolis Colts in overtime to move to 6-2 on the year. In the process, they lost star running back Derrick Henry to a foot injury, perhaps for the rest of the season. The New Orleans Saints also suffered a big loss in a big win — QB Jameis Winston tore the ACL in his left knee early in the game, but backup Trevor Siemian guided the Saints to a big win over the defending champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers. With all these surprising losses and injuries to key players, each team’s odds of winning the Super Bowl are in flux.

To determine how each NFL team will finish the 2021 season, 24/7 Tempo reviews each week FiveThirtyEight’s 2021 NFL Predictions, which are based on 50,000 simulated games and are updated after every game. The predictions are as of Nov. 3, 2021, and teams are ranked by their projected chance of winning the Super Bowl. Supplemental data came from Pro Football Reference.

Though the NFL is less than half of the way through its 18-week season, the true contenders have started to separate themselves from the rest of the pack — most of the 32 teams have a 1% or less chance of winning the Super Bowl, per FiveThirtyEight’s simulations, while just five teams have a 10% or greater chance of taking home the Lombardi Trophy.

While some teams are fighting for a playoff spot, others are just floundering. The Detroit Lions are 0-8 after getting blown out by a lackluster Philadelphia Eagles team 44-6. It seems as if Detroit is in for another long stretch of losing as they try to rebuild their roster. These are the NFL teams with the all-time worst losing streaks.

Source: Nic Antaya / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images

32. Detroit Lions
> Projected record: 2-15
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: <0.1%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: <0.1%
> 2020 record: 5-11

Source: Handout / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images

31. Jacksonville Jaguars
> Projected record: 4-13
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 0.2%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: <0.1%
> 2020 record: 1-15

Source: Jason Miller / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images

30. Houston Texans
> Projected record: 4-13
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 0.3%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: <0.1%
> 2020 record: 4-12

Source: Al Bello / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images

29. New York Jets
> Projected record: 5-12
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 2%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: <0.1%
> 2020 record: 2-14

Source: Maddie Meyer / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images

28. Miami Dolphins
> Projected record: 5-12
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 1%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: <0.1%
> 2020 record: 10-6

Source: Mike Stobe / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images

27. New York Giants
> Projected record: 5-12
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 3%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: <0.1%
> 2020 record: 6-10

Source: Jonathan Daniel / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images

26. Chicago Bears
> Projected record: 6-11
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 6%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: <0.1%
> 2020 record: 8-8

Source: Rob Carr / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images

25. Washington Football Team
> Projected record: 5-12
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 4%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: <0.1%
> 2020 record: 7-9

Source: Michael Reaves / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images

24. Atlanta Falcons
> Projected record: 7-10
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 8%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: <0.1%
> 2020 record: 4-12

Source: Grant Halverson / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images

23. Carolina Panthers
> Projected record: 7-10
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 13%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: <0.1%
> 2020 record: 5-11

Source: Richard Rodriguez / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images

22. Philadelphia Eagles
> Projected record: 7-10
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 21%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.1%
> 2020 record: 4-11

Source: Dustin Bradford / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images

21. Denver Broncos
> Projected record: 8-9
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 22%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.3%
> 2020 record: 5-11

Source: Norm Hall / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images

20. Minnesota Vikings
> Projected record: 8-9
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 27%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.4%
> 2020 record: 7-9

Source: Norm Hall / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images

19. San Francisco 49ers
> Projected record: 8-9
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 29%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.5%
> 2020 record: 6-10

Source: Ezra Shaw / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images

18. Seattle Seahawks
> Projected record: 8-9
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 24%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.6%
> 2020 record: 12-4

Source: Justin Casterline / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images

17. Indianapolis Colts
> Projected record: 8-9
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 34%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.7%
> 2020 record: 11-5

Source: Nic Antaya / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images

16. Cleveland Browns
> Projected record: 8-9
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 33%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 1%
> 2020 record: 11-5

Source: Justin K. Aller / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images

15. Pittsburgh Steelers
> Projected record: 9-8
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 40%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 1%
> 2020 record: 12-4

Source: Adam Glanzman / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images

14. New England Patriots
> Projected record: 9-8
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 46%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 1%
> 2020 record: 7-9

Source: Steph Chambers / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images

13. New Orleans Saints
> Projected record: 10-7
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 76%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 1%
> 2020 record: 12-4

Source: Rob Carr / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images

12. Cincinnati Bengals
> Projected record: 10-7
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 63%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 2%
> 2020 record: 4-11

Source: Jamie Squire / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images

11. Kansas City Chiefs
> Projected record: 9-8
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 48%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 2%
> 2020 record: 14-2

Source: Ethan Miller / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images

10. Las Vegas Raiders
> Projected record: 10-7
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 65%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 2%
> 2020 record: 8-8

Source: Harry How / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images

9. Los Angeles Chargers
> Projected record: 10-7
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 67%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 3%
> 2020 record: 7-9

Source: Wesley Hitt / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images

8. Baltimore Ravens
> Projected record: 11-6
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 82%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 6%
> 2020 record: 11-5

Source: Andy Lyons / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images

7. Tennessee Titans
> Projected record: 12-5
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 99%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 7%
> 2020 record: 11-5

Source: Jason Miller / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images

6. Arizona Cardinals
> Projected record: 13-4
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 97%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 7%
> 2020 record: 8-8

Source: Wesley Hitt / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images

5. Green Bay Packers
> Projected record: 13-4
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 99%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 10%
> 2020 record: 13-3

Source: Stacy Revere / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
> Projected record: 13-4
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 98%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 11%
> 2020 record: 11-5

Source: Tom Pennington / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images

3. Dallas Cowboys
> Projected record: 13-4
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 98%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 12%
> 2020 record: 6-10

Source: Kevork Djansezian / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images

2. Los Angeles Rams
> Projected record: 13-4
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 97%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 13%
> 2020 record: 10-6

Source: Timothy T Ludwig / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images

1. Buffalo Bills
> Projected record: 13-4
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 98%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 16%
> 2020 record: 13-3

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