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How Each NFL Team Will Finish This Season

How Each NFL Team Will Finish This Season

With the 2021 NFL season in full swing, fans are starting to get a clearer picture of which teams are the most likely to win the Super Bowl. Though it is early in the season, some teams are already establishing themselves as a force to be reckoned with.

The Los Angeles Rams beat the defending champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers 34-24 in what could be an NFC Championship game preview. The Green Bay Packers picked up a big road win against the San Francisco 49ers, and the Los Angeles Chargers finally took down the Kansas City Chiefs. These big wins can help separate the contenders from the pretenders in the 2021 NFL season, and boost the team’s odds of winning the Super Bowl.

To determine how each NFL team will finish the 2021 season, 24/7 Tempo reviewed FiveThirtyEight’s 2021 NFL predictions for how the season will play out, based on 50,000 simulated games, as of September 23, 2021. Supplemental data came from Pro Football Reference.

With 32 teams vying for the Lombardi Trophy, even the most talented teams face a difficult challenge in their quest to win the title. No franchise has a more than 14% chance of winning the Super Bowl this season, according to FiveThirtyEight.

The most crucial factor in determining who could win the Super Bowl is the quarterback — undoubtedly the most important position in football, teams with proven signal callers like Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, and Patrick Mahomes have an edge that other teams simply cannot match. This is the best quarterback in each team’s history.

Source: James Gilbert / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images

32. Jacksonville Jaguars
> Projected record: 4-13
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 2%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: <0.1%
> 2020 record: 1-15

Source: Bob Levey / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images

31. Houston Texans
> Projected record: 5-12
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 5%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: <0.1%
> 2020 record: 4-12

Source: Patrick McDermott / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images

30. New York Jets
> Projected record: 4-13
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 2%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: <0.1%
> 2020 record: 2-14

Source: Quinn Harris / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images

29. Detroit Lions
> Projected record: 4-13
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 2%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: <0.1%
> 2020 record: 5-11

Source: Tim Nwachukwu / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images

28. New York Giants
> Projected record: 5-12
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 5%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.1%
> 2020 record: 6-10

Source: Al Bello / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images

27. Atlanta Falcons
> Projected record: 7-10
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 12%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.2%
> 2020 record: 4-12

Source: Bryan M. Bennett / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images

26. Pittsburgh Steelers
> Projected record: 7-10
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 13%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.4%
> 2020 record: 12-4

Source: Bryan M. Bennett / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images

25. Indianapolis Colts
> Projected record: 7-10
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 22%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.4%
> 2020 record: 11-5

Source: Jonathan Daniel / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images

24. Chicago Bears
> Projected record: 7-10
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 19%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.5%
> 2020 record: 8-8

Source: Richard Rodriguez / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images

23. Philadelphia Eagles
> Projected record: 7-10
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 23%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.5%
> 2020 record: 4-11

Source: Patrick Smith / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images

22. Washington Football Team
> Projected record: 6-11
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 17%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.5%
> 2020 record: 7-9

Source: Michael Reaves / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images

21. Miami Dolphins
> Projected record: 8-9
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 34%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.6%
> 2020 record: 10-6

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20. New England Patriots
> Projected record: 8-9
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 28%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 1%
> 2020 record: 7-9

Source: Andy Lyons / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images

19. Cincinnati Bengals
> Projected record: 9-8
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 41%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 1%
> 2020 record: 4-11

Source: Justin Casterline / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images

18. Seattle Seahawks
> Projected record: 9-8
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 34%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 2%
> 2020 record: 12-4

Source: David Berding / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images

17. Minnesota Vikings
> Projected record: 8-9
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 39%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 2%
> 2020 record: 7-9

Source: Grant Halverson / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images

16. Carolina Panthers
> Projected record: 10-7
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 54%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 2%
> 2020 record: 5-11

Source: Andy Lyons / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images

15. Tennessee Titans
> Projected record: 10-7
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 82%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 3%
> 2020 record: 11-5

Source: Julio Aguilar / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images

14. Dallas Cowboys
> Projected record: 10-7
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 71%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 3%
> 2020 record: 6-10

Source: Christian Petersen / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images

13. Las Vegas Raiders
> Projected record: 10-7
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 62%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 3%
> 2020 record: 8-8

Source: Thearon W. Henderson / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images

12. San Francisco 49ers
> Projected record: 10-7
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 60%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 4%
> 2020 record: 6-10

Source: Chris Graythen / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images

11. New Orleans Saints
> Projected record: 10-7
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 63%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 4%
> 2020 record: 12-4

Source: Dylan Buell / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images

10. Green Bay Packers
> Projected record: 10-7
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 66%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 4%
> 2020 record: 13-3

Source: Sam Greenwood / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images

9. Arizona Cardinals
> Projected record: 11-6
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 67%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 4%
> 2020 record: 8-8

Source: Julio Aguilar / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images

8. Denver Broncos
> Projected record: 11-6
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 69%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 4%
> 2020 record: 5-11

Source: Justin K. Aller / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images

7. Cleveland Browns
> Projected record: 10-7
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 61%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 5%
> 2020 record: 11-5

Source: Rob Carr / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images

6. Los Angeles Chargers
> Projected record: 10-7
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 63%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 5%
> 2020 record: 7-9

Source: Andy Lyons / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images

5. Baltimore Ravens
> Projected record: 10-7
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 65%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 5%
> 2020 record: 11-5

Source: Jamie Squire / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images

4. Kansas City Chiefs
> Projected record: 10-7
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 61%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 7%
> 2020 record: 14-2

Source: Timothy T Ludwig / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images

3. Buffalo Bills
> Projected record: 12-5
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 89%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 11%
> 2020 record: 13-3

Source: Stacy Revere / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images

2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
> Projected record: 12-5
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 83%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 12%
> 2020 record: 11-5

Source: Harry How / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images

1. Los Angeles Rams
> Projected record: 12-5
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 86%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 14%
> 2020 record: 10-6

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