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After Week 7, Every NFL Team’s Chance to Win the Super Bowl

After Week 7, Every NFL Team’s Chance to Win the Super Bowl

In Week 7 of the NFL season, many of the league’s top teams flex their muscles against struggling opponents. The Arizona Cardinals remained undefeated, coasting to a 31-5 victory over the Houston Texans. The defending champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers smothered the Chicago Bears 38-3, and the Green Bay Packers pulled away from the Washington Football Team late to earn a 24-10 win.

Some of the blowouts from Week 7 were surprises as well. The Tennessee Titans held the normally-potent Kansas City Chiefs offense to just a field goal, winning 27-3. Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals now sit atop the AFC North after running rampant against the Baltimore Ravens, winning 41-17. These top teams showed just how dangerous they can be once the playoffs arrive.

To determine how each NFL team will finish the 2021 season, 24/7 Tempo reviews each week FiveThirtyEight’s 2021 NFL Predictions, which are based on 50,000 simulated games and are updated after every game. The predictions are as of Oct. 26, 2021, and teams are ranked by their projected chance of winning the Super Bowl. Supplemental data came from Pro Football Reference.

With the NFL season almost halfway gone, many teams with Super Bowl aspirations are running out of time to right the ship. The Chiefs and 49ers played each other in the Super Bowl just two seasons ago. Now both are below .500 and run the risk of falling out of contention early. FiveThirtyEight’s predictions show both teams have a less than 50% chance of even making the playoffs.

On the flip side, several long-suffering fan bases are starting to have some reasons for optimism. If the season ended today, the Cardinals and Bengals would be the only teams to get a first round bye, putting them in prime position to win their first Super Bowl in franchise history. These are the teams that have lost all their Super Bowls.

Source: Leon Halip / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images

32. Detroit Lions
> Projected record: 2-15
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: <0.1%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: <0.1%
> 2020 record: 5-11

Source: Al Bello / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images

31. New York Jets
> Projected record: 4-13
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 0.9%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: <0.1%
> 2020 record: 2-14

Source: Jason Miller / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images

30. Houston Texans
> Projected record: 4-13
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 0.5%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: <0.1%
> 2020 record: 4-12

Source: Alex Pantling / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images

29. Jacksonville Jaguars
> Projected record: 4-13
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 0.6%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: <0.1%
> 2020 record: 1-15

Source: Grant Halverson / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images

28. Carolina Panthers
> Projected record: 6-11
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 5%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: <0.1%
> 2020 record: 5-11

Source: Michael Reaves / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images

27. Miami Dolphins
> Projected record: 6-11
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 3%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: <0.1%
> 2020 record: 10-6

Source: Tim Nwachukwu / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images

26. New York Giants
> Projected record: 6-11
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 5%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: <0.1%
> 2020 record: 6-10

Source: Emilee Chinn / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images

25. Chicago Bears
> Projected record: 7-10
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 14%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.1%
> 2020 record: 8-8

Source: Richard Rodriguez / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images

24. Philadelphia Eagles
> Projected record: 7-10
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 13%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.1%
> 2020 record: 4-11

Source: Rob Carr / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images

23. Washington Football Team
> Projected record: 6-11
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 9%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.1%
> 2020 record: 7-9

Source: Kevin C. Cox / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images

22. Atlanta Falcons
> Projected record: 8-9
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 19%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.2%
> 2020 record: 4-12

Source: Thearon W. Henderson / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images

21. San Francisco 49ers
> Projected record: 7-10
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 16%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.2%
> 2020 record: 6-10

Source: Julio Aguilar / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images

20. Denver Broncos
> Projected record: 7-10
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 15%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.3%
> 2020 record: 5-11

Source: Christian Petersen / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images

19. Seattle Seahawks
> Projected record: 7-10
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 17%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.3%
> 2020 record: 12-4

Source: Patrick McDermott / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images

18. Pittsburgh Steelers
> Projected record: 8-9
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 22%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.6%
> 2020 record: 12-4

Source: Adam Glanzman / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images

17. New England Patriots
> Projected record: 8-9
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 26%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.7%
> 2020 record: 7-9

Source: Mike Comer / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images

16. Minnesota Vikings
> Projected record: 8-9
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 45%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 1%
> 2020 record: 7-9

Source: Justin Casterline / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images

15. Indianapolis Colts
> Projected record: 9-8
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 50%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 1%
> 2020 record: 11-5

Source: Nic Antaya / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images

14. Cleveland Browns
> Projected record: 9-8
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 50%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 2%
> 2020 record: 11-5

Source: Christian Petersen / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images

13. Las Vegas Raiders
> Projected record: 10-7
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 62%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 2%
> 2020 record: 8-8

Source: Jamie Squire / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images

12. Kansas City Chiefs
> Projected record: 9-8
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 44%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 2%
> 2020 record: 14-2

Source: Chris Graythen / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images

11. New Orleans Saints
> Projected record: 10-7
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 75%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 3%
> 2020 record: 12-4

Source: Joe Sargent / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images

10. Cincinnati Bengals
> Projected record: 11-6
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 77%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 4%
> 2020 record: 4-11

Source: Wesley Hitt / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images

9. Tennessee Titans
> Projected record: 11-6
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 91%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 5%
> 2020 record: 11-5

Source: Andy Lyons / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images

8. Baltimore Ravens
> Projected record: 11-6
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 80%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 5%
> 2020 record: 11-5

Source: Harry How / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images

7. Los Angeles Chargers
> Projected record: 11-6
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 82%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 6%
> 2020 record: 7-9

Source: Dylan Buell / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images

6. Green Bay Packers
> Projected record: 12-5
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 94%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 6%
> 2020 record: 13-3

Source: Tom Pennington / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images

5. Dallas Cowboys
> Projected record: 12-5
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 94%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 6%
> 2020 record: 6-10

Source: Kevork Djansezian / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images

4. Los Angeles Rams
> Projected record: 13-4
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 97%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 11%
> 2020 record: 10-6

Source: Sam Greenwood / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images

3. Arizona Cardinals
> Projected record: 14-3
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 99%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 12%
> 2020 record: 8-8

Source: Timothy T Ludwig / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images

2. Buffalo Bills
> Projected record: 12-5
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 96%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 13%
> 2020 record: 13-3

Source: Stacy Revere / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images

1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
> Projected record: 13-4
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 99%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 17%
> 2020 record: 11-5

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