The NFL’s Week 11 results prove that any team can win on any given Sunday, no matter what their record is going into the game. Four of the eight teams that led their division after Week 10 suffered a loss in Week 11, including some losses to teams with records below .500.
Several other teams that seemed to be struggling earlier in the season now appear to be rounding into shape for the stretch run. Still, there is plenty more time left in the season for teams to improve, get healthy, and set themselves up to contend for a title. Per FiveThirtyEight, there are just 10 NFL teams with at least a 5% chance of winning the Super Bowl.
To determine how each NFL team will finish the 2021 season, 24/7 Tempo reviews each week FiveThirtyEight’s 2021 NFL Predictions, which are based on 50,000 simulated games and are updated after every game. The predictions are as of Nov. 23, 2021, and teams are ranked by their projected chance of winning the Super Bowl. Supplemental data came from Pro Football Reference.
The Green Bay Packers and Buffalo Bills have, at times, looked like the top team in their conference. Yet both suffered shock defeats during Week 11. The Packers defense gave up 34 points to the Minnesota Vikings, losing on a last second field goal 34-31. The Bills were flattened by Jonathan Taylor and the Indianapolis Colts rushing attack, losing 41-15.
Other contenders seem to be overcoming adversity to push for the top overall seed. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers were reeling after two straight losses, but they easily overpowered the New York Giants on Monday Night Football, winning 30-10. Both the Arizona Cardinals and Baltimore Ravens were without their starting quarterbacks, yet backups were able to lead them to important wins, proving the value of investing in a quality second-string QB. These are the NFL teams paying their players the most and the least.
32. Detroit Lions
> Current record: 0-9-1
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: <0.1%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: <0.1%
> 2020 record: 5-11
31. New York Jets
> Current record: 2-8
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: <0.1%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: <0.1%
> 2020 record: 2-14
30. Jacksonville Jaguars
> Current record: 2-8
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: <0.1%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: <0.1%
> 2020 record: 1-15
29. Houston Texans
> Current record: 2-8
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 0.1%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: <0.1%
> 2020 record: 4-12
28. Chicago Bears
> Current record: 3-7
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 1%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: <0.1%
> 2020 record: 8-8
27. Atlanta Falcons
> Current record: 4-6
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 4%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: <0.1%
> 2020 record: 4-12
26. New York Giants
> Current record: 3-7
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 2%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: <0.1%
> 2020 record: 6-10
25. Seattle Seahawks
> Current record: 3-7
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 4%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: <0.1%
> 2020 record: 12-4
24. Las Vegas Raiders
> Current record: 5-5
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 9%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: <0.1%
> 2020 record: 8-8
23. Miami Dolphins
> Current record: 4-7
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 5%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.1%
> 2020 record: 10-6
22. Denver Broncos
> Current record: 5-5
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 17%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.4%
> 2020 record: 5-11
21. Carolina Panthers
> Current record: 5-6
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 15%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.4%
> 2020 record: 5-11
20. Pittsburgh Steelers
> Current record: 5-4-1
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 22%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.7%
> 2020 record: 12-4
19. Washington Football Team
> Current record: 4-6
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 25%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.8%
> 2020 record: 7-9
18. New Orleans Saints
> Current record: 5-5
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 34%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.8%
> 2020 record: 12-4
17. Philadelphia Eagles
> Current record: 5-6
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 40%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.8%
> 2020 record: 4-11
16. Cleveland Browns
> Current record: 6-5
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 32%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.9%
> 2020 record: 11-5
15. San Francisco 49ers
> Current record: 5-5
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 49%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 1%
> 2020 record: 6-10
14. Cincinnati Bengals
> Current record: 6-4
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 48%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 2%
> 2020 record: 4-11
13. Minnesota Vikings
> Current record: 5-5
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 59%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 2%
> 2020 record: 7-9
12. Indianapolis Colts
> Current record: 6-5
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 72%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 4%
> 2020 record: 11-5
11. Los Angeles Rams
> Current record: 7-3
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 84%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 4%
> 2020 record: 10-6
10. Buffalo Bills
> Current record: 6-4
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 73%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 5%
> 2020 record: 13-3
9. Los Angeles Chargers
> Current record: 6-4
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 72%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 5%
> 2020 record: 7-9
8. Dallas Cowboys
> Current record: 7-3
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 90%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 5%
> 2020 record: 6-10
7. New England Patriots
> Current record: 7-4
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 82%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 7%
> 2020 record: 7-9
6. Baltimore Ravens
> Current record: 7-3
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 83%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 7%
> 2020 record: 11-5
5. Tennessee Titans
> Current record: 8-3
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 98%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 8%
> 2020 record: 11-5
4. Kansas City Chiefs
> Current record: 7-4
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 87%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 9%
> 2020 record: 14-2
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
> Current record: 7-3
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 95%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 10%
> 2020 record: 11-5
2. Green Bay Packers
> Current record: 8-3
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: >99%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 13%
> 2020 record: 13-3
1. Arizona Cardinals
> Current record: 9-2
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: >99%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 14%
> 2020 record: 8-8