“Herd immunity” has become among the most discussed parts of the spread of COVID-19 around America. Is it any wonder? It describes a time when the disease is much less deadly because enough people have been infected, or have received vaccines.
The toll of the disease will be terrible, whenever herd immunity comes. More than 500,000 American have died. Fortunately, that figure currently rises by about 2,000 a day. The figure was closer to 4,000 a day just weeks ago. However the 500,000 figure remains about 20% of the world total. Confirmed cases in the U.S. have topped 28 million, about 25% of the world total. And, many scientists believe that is low by tens of millions, because of undiagnosed cases.
Hospitalizations have dropped as well, down from over 100,000 people nationwide. ICUs beds had started to overflow, even in large cities like Los Angeles.
The path to herd immunity is to a large extent a race of the rate at which the adult population is vaccinated against fast spreading variants of the disease. The vaccination rate of U.S. adults is still below 15%, and in some states, much lower. Adults who have received two shots on a nationwide basis are under 6%. President Biden says the federal government has contracts to add 200 million doses by the end of July.
However, variants have emerged from the U.K., South Africa, and Brazil. At least one spreads faster than the version that has been dominant in the U.S. for over a year. And, it is not entirely clear that current vaccines protect well against all three of these. The good news is that at least three new vaccines may be added to the two currently approved in the U.S.
Herd Immunity in April?
Johns Hopkins professor Dr Marty Makary recently wrote in The Wall Street Journal, He said ‘”We’ll have herd immunity by April”. He added ‘Some medical experts privately agreed with my prediction that there may be very little Covid-19 by April but suggested that I not to talk publicly about herd immunity because people might become complacent and fail to take precautions or might decline the vaccine.”
Makary has been challenged because the rate of vaccination may not pick up a great deal in the next 60 days, but his comments caused a stream of debate on both sides of the issue.
The Argument for Herd Immunity Grows
Suzanne Judd, PhD, an epidemiologist at the University of Alabama said that she supports Makary’s theory. She told Yahoo Finance ‘it’s possible we could be approaching herd immunity’. She added, ‘That is the big discussion in public health right now. It certainly is possible’. She believes that asymptomatic cases stretch well into the millions, so the number of infected people plus those vaccinated will approach 100 million soon.
Can the U.S. Overcome Slow Vaccinations
The number of infected people is only one side of the herd immunity calculation. Vaccination is the other. Late in 2020, the Trump Administration sets aggressive goals for vaccination rates. By mid-January, it was clear those goals could not be attained. A total of 82,114,370 vaccine doses have been delivered as of February 22. Of those 65,032,083 shots have been given. About 13% of U.S. adults have received at least one dose, and 6% have gotten both doses.
However, state governors have complained that their supplies have often run low. And, occasionally vaccines are wasted because they have been improperly stored. This the state where COVID-19 is surging the most.
The Dangers of Variants
Three variants have begun to infect Americans. They come from the U.K., South Africa, and Brazil, as far as epidemiologists can tell. Of these the B.1.1.7, from the U.K. is the most prevalent. Because it spreads quickly, US News reports “The U.K. COVID Variant May Be More Lethal, and Could Become Dominant U.S. Strain by March”
CDC data show that the largest number of variants have been found in 45 states, led by Florida, California, and Michigan.
Until Herd Immunity Arrives, Has The Advice About COVID-19 Changed?
Herd Immunity may occur in April, or, could not happen until well into the year. However, the CDC has not changed its advice about stopping the spread and saving lives.
Social distancing and mask wearing are as critical as usual. There is much evidence that breaking these rules is dangerous. Much of the deadly infection growth in states like South Dakota have been blamed on refusal by government officials to enforce what are considered the most basic COVID-19 safety measures. Dr. Anthony Fauci has described when Americans may be able to stop wearing face masks