The full effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on life expectancy in the U.S. won’t be known for a few more years, certainly not before the pandemic has been declared over. But the coronavirus has indeed caused a plunge in the overall life expectancy in the country during the first half of 2020.
Life expectancy at birth is estimated to have dropped to 77.8 years between January and June 2020, down a full year from the 78.8 years in 2019, according to a research by the National Center for Health Statistics. To put these figures into context, it was disturbing news when life expectancy dropped by 0.1 years between 2014 and 2015 — the first decline since 1993. Life expectancy kept declining in some states after 2015.
To determine the states where life expectancy has declined already before the coronavirus pandemic, 24/7 Tempo reviewed life expectancy at birth figures from 2010 to 2015 and 2017 to 2019 from the NCHS, a branch of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
The drop in life expectancy between 2015 and 2019 was driven partially by a steady increase in deaths by suicide and fatal drug overdoses. In 18 of the 25 states where life expectancy was in decline even before the pandemic, the drug overdose death rate is higher than the U.S. average of 21.2 deaths per 100,000 residents.
There may be a glimmer of good news, however. The life expectancy has increased in half the country between 2015 and 2019. The overall U.S. life expectancy increased in 2018, the first time in four years. The improvement came after fatal drug overdoses declined for the first time in nearly three decades, according to the NCHS.
The increase in life expectancy at birth and the likelihood of living a long life vary considerably across the country, from state to state and city to city — these are the 40 US cities with the shortest life expectancy.
25. New Jersey
> Life expectancy drop: -0.01 years
> Life expectancy at birth 2010-2015: 80.50 — 7th highest
> Life expectancy at birth 2017-2019: 80.49 — 8th highest
> Suicides per 100K: 8.0 — the lowest (total: 762)
> Fatal drug overdoses per 100K: 31.7 — 10th highest (total: 2,805)
> COVID-19 deaths per 100K as of Apr. 19: 283 — the highest (total: 25,134)
> Population: 8,882,190
24. Mississippi
> Life expectancy drop: -0.02 years
> Life expectancy at birth 2010-2015: 74.90 — the lowest
> Life expectancy at birth 2017-2019: 74.88 — 2nd lowest
> Suicides per 100K: 14.4 — 18th lowest (total: 436)
> Fatal drug overdoses per 100K: 13.6 — 8th lowest (total: 394)
> COVID-19 deaths per 100K as of Apr. 19: 240 — 5th highest (total: 7,153)
> Population: 2,976,149
23. Connecticut
> Life expectancy drop: -0.03 years
> Life expectancy at birth 2010-2015: 80.90 — 5th highest
> Life expectancy at birth 2017-2019: 80.87 — 5th highest
> Suicides per 100K: 11.4 — 9th lowest (total: 435)
> Fatal drug overdoses per 100K: 34.7 — 6th highest (total: 1,214)
> COVID-19 deaths per 100K as of Apr. 19: 224 — 7th highest (total: 7,995)
> Population: 3,565,287
22. Nebraska
> Life expectancy drop: -0.03 years
> Life expectancy at birth 2010-2015: 79.60 — 17th highest
> Life expectancy at birth 2017-2019: 79.57 — 18th highest
> Suicides per 100K: 16.1 — 25th highest (total: 309)
> Fatal drug overdoses per 100K: 8.7 — the lowest (total: 161)
> COVID-19 deaths per 100K as of Apr. 19: 114 — 11th lowest (total: 2,213)
> Population: 1,934,408
21. Michigan
> Life expectancy drop: -0.06 years
> Life expectancy at birth 2010-2015: 78.20 — 15th lowest
> Life expectancy at birth 2017-2019: 78.14 — 16th lowest
> Suicides per 100K: 14.3 — 16th lowest (total: 1,472)
> Fatal drug overdoses per 100K: 24.4 — 20th highest (total: 2,385)
> COVID-19 deaths per 100K as of Apr. 19: 180 — 20th highest (total: 17,934)
> Population: 9,986,857
20. Rhode Island
> Life expectancy drop: -0.06 years
> Life expectancy at birth 2010-2015: 79.90 — 13th highest
> Life expectancy at birth 2017-2019: 79.84 — 14th highest
> Suicides per 100K: 10.7 — 6th lowest (total: 123)
> Fatal drug overdoses per 100K: 29.5 — 14th highest (total: 307)
> COVID-19 deaths per 100K as of Apr. 19: 250 — 4th highest (total: 2,647)
> Population: 1,059,361
19. Massachusetts
> Life expectancy drop: -0.08 years
> Life expectancy at birth 2010-2015: 80.70 — 6th highest
> Life expectancy at birth 2017-2019: 80.62 — 6th highest
> Suicides per 100K: 8.7 — 3rd lowest (total: 647)
> Fatal drug overdoses per 100K: 32.1 — 8th highest (total: 2,210)
> COVID-19 deaths per 100K as of Apr. 19: 251 — 3rd highest (total: 17,318)
> Population: 6,892,503
18. Minnesota
> Life expectancy drop: -0.08 years
> Life expectancy at birth 2010-2015: 81.00 — 3rd highest
> Life expectancy at birth 2017-2019: 80.92 — 4th highest
> Suicides per 100K: 14.4 — 18th lowest (total: 830)
> Fatal drug overdoses per 100K: 14.2 — 12th lowest (total: 792)
> COVID-19 deaths per 100K as of Apr. 19: 126 — 15th lowest (total: 7,083)
> Population: 5,639,632
17. Wisconsin
> Life expectancy drop: -0.14 years
> Life expectancy at birth 2010-2015: 79.60 — 17th highest
> Life expectancy at birth 2017-2019: 79.46 — 20th highest
> Suicides per 100K: 14.0 — 13th lowest (total: 845)
> Fatal drug overdoses per 100K: 21.1 — 25th highest (total: 1,201)
> COVID-19 deaths per 100K as of Apr. 19: 127 — 16th lowest (total: 7,422)
> Population: 5,822,434
16. Kansas
> Life expectancy drop: -0.15 years
> Life expectancy at birth 2010-2015: 78.60 — 20th lowest
> Life expectancy at birth 2017-2019: 78.45 — 18th lowest
> Suicides per 100K: 18.2 — 15th highest (total: 523)
> Fatal drug overdoses per 100K: 14.3 — 13th lowest (total: 403)
> COVID-19 deaths per 100K as of Apr. 19: 170 — 23rd highest (total: 4,953)
> Population: 2,913,314
15. Pennsylvania
> Life expectancy drop: -0.15 years
> Life expectancy at birth 2010-2015: 78.60 — 20th lowest
> Life expectancy at birth 2017-2019: 78.45 — 17th lowest
> Suicides per 100K: 14.1 — 14th lowest (total: 1,896)
> Fatal drug overdoses per 100K: 35.6 — 5th highest (total: 4,377)
> COVID-19 deaths per 100K as of Apr. 19: 200 — 11th highest (total: 25,661)
> Population: 12,801,989
14. Vermont
> Life expectancy drop: -0.17 years
> Life expectancy at birth 2010-2015: 80.00 — 12th highest
> Life expectancy at birth 2017-2019: 79.83 — 15th highest
> Suicides per 100K: 16.0 — 25th lowest (total: 110)
> Fatal drug overdoses per 100K: 23.8 — 21st highest (total: 133)
> COVID-19 deaths per 100K as of Apr. 19: 39 — 2nd lowest (total: 242)
> Population: 623,989
13. Delaware
> Life expectancy drop: -0.23 years
> Life expectancy at birth 2010-2015: 78.70 — 21st lowest
> Life expectancy at birth 2017-2019: 78.47 — 19th lowest
> Suicides per 100K: 11.3 — 8th lowest (total: 111)
> Fatal drug overdoses per 100K: 48.0 — 2nd highest (total: 435)
> COVID-19 deaths per 100K as of Apr. 19: 165 — 25th lowest (total: 1,602)
> Population: 973,764
12. Iowa
> Life expectancy drop: -0.24 years
> Life expectancy at birth 2010-2015: 79.60 — 17th highest
> Life expectancy at birth 2017-2019: 79.36 — 23rd highest
> Suicides per 100K: 16.7 — 21st highest (total: 528)
> Fatal drug overdoses per 100K: 11.5 — 5th lowest (total: 352)
> COVID-19 deaths per 100K as of Apr. 19: 186 — 17th highest (total: 5,881)
> Population: 3,155,070
11. Kentucky
> Life expectancy drop: -0.27 years
> Life expectancy at birth 2010-2015: 75.90 — 5th lowest
> Life expectancy at birth 2017-2019: 75.63 — 4th lowest
> Suicides per 100K: 16.5 — 22nd highest (total: 756)
> Fatal drug overdoses per 100K: 32.5 — 7th highest (total: 1,380)
> COVID-19 deaths per 100K as of Apr. 19: 142 — 19th lowest (total: 6,330)
> Population: 4,467,673
10. Indiana
> Life expectancy drop: -0.29 years
> Life expectancy at birth 2010-2015: 77.40 — 10th lowest
> Life expectancy at birth 2017-2019: 77.11 — 10th lowest
> Suicides per 100K: 14.2 — 15th lowest (total: 972)
> Fatal drug overdoses per 100K: 26.6 — 18th highest (total: 1,699)
> COVID-19 deaths per 100K as of Apr. 19: 196 — 12th highest (total: 13,216)
> Population: 6,732,219
9. Missouri
> Life expectancy drop: -0.30 years
> Life expectancy at birth 2010-2015: 77.60 — 12th lowest
> Life expectancy at birth 2017-2019: 77.30 — 12th lowest
> Suicides per 100K: 18.2 — 15th highest (total: 1,141)
> Fatal drug overdoses per 100K: 26.9 — 16th highest (total: 1,583)
> COVID-19 deaths per 100K as of Apr. 19: 141 — 17th lowest (total: 8,635)
> Population: 6,137,428
8. Maine
> Life expectancy drop: -0.31 years
> Life expectancy at birth 2010-2015: 79.00 — 25th lowest
> Life expectancy at birth 2017-2019: 78.69 — 21st lowest
> Suicides per 100K: 19.4 — 12th highest (total: 276)
> Fatal drug overdoses per 100K: 29.9 — 13th highest (total: 371)
> COVID-19 deaths per 100K as of Apr. 19: 57 — 4th lowest (total: 765)
> Population: 1,344,212
7. Tennessee
> Life expectancy drop: -0.32 years
> Life expectancy at birth 2010-2015: 76.30 — 8th lowest
> Life expectancy at birth 2017-2019: 75.98 — 5th lowest
> Suicides per 100K: 17.2 — 20th highest (total: 1,219)
> Fatal drug overdoses per 100K: 31.2 — 11th highest (total: 2,089)
> COVID-19 deaths per 100K as of Apr. 19: 176 — 21st highest (total: 12,049)
> Population: 6,829,174
6. Maryland
> Life expectancy drop: -0.38 years
> Life expectancy at birth 2010-2015: 79.60 — 17th highest
> Life expectancy at birth 2017-2019: 79.22 — 24th highest
> Suicides per 100K: 10.3 — 4th lowest (total: 657)
> Fatal drug overdoses per 100K: 38.2 — 4th highest (total: 2,369)
> COVID-19 deaths per 100K as of Apr. 19: 142 — 18th lowest (total: 8,562)
> Population: 6,045,680
5. New Hampshire
> Life expectancy drop: -0.41 years
> Life expectancy at birth 2010-2015: 80.10 — 10th highest
> Life expectancy at birth 2017-2019: 79.69 — 17th highest
> Suicides per 100K: 17.5 — 19th highest (total: 255)
> Fatal drug overdoses per 100K: 32.0 — 9th highest (total: 407)
> COVID-19 deaths per 100K as of Apr. 19: 93 — 8th lowest (total: 1,266)
> Population: 1,359,711
4. New Mexico
> Life expectancy drop: -0.42 years
> Life expectancy at birth 2010-2015: 78.40 — 17th lowest
> Life expectancy at birth 2017-2019: 77.98 — 14th lowest
> Suicides per 100K: 24.0 — 4th highest (total: 513)
> Fatal drug overdoses per 100K: 30.2 — 12th highest (total: 599)
> COVID-19 deaths per 100K as of Apr. 19: 191 — 14th highest (total: 4,001)
> Population: 2,096,829
3. South Dakota
> Life expectancy drop: -0.49 years
> Life expectancy at birth 2010-2015: 79.40 — 22nd highest
> Life expectancy at birth 2017-2019: 78.91 — 22nd lowest
> Suicides per 100K: 20.9 — 7th highest (total: 182)
> Fatal drug overdoses per 100K: 10.5 — 2nd lowest (total: 86)
> COVID-19 deaths per 100K as of Apr. 19: 221 — 9th highest (total: 1,953)
> Population: 884,659
2. West Virginia
> Life expectancy drop: -0.51 years
> Life expectancy at birth 2010-2015: 75.30 — 2nd lowest
> Life expectancy at birth 2017-2019: 74.79 — the lowest
> Suicides per 100K: 18.5 — 14th highest (total: 330)
> Fatal drug overdoses per 100K: 52.8 — the highest (total: 870)
> COVID-19 deaths per 100K as of Apr. 19: 155 — 22nd lowest (total: 2,780)
> Population: 1,792,147
1. Ohio
> Life expectancy drop: -0.62 years
> Life expectancy at birth 2010-2015: 77.60 — 12th lowest
> Life expectancy at birth 2017-2019: 76.98 — 9th lowest
> Suicides per 100K: 15.1 — 22nd lowest (total: 1,806)
> Fatal drug overdoses per 100K: 38.3 — 3rd highest (total: 4,251)
> COVID-19 deaths per 100K as of Apr. 19: 162 — 24th lowest (total: 18,991)
> Population: 11,689,100
Methodology
To determine the states where life expectancy has declined before the coronavirus pandemic, 24/7 Tempo reviewed life expectancy at birth figures from the National Center for Health Statistics, a branch of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The CDC estimates life expectancy using death and birth records.
We compared life expectancy data for 2010-2015 with life expectancy data for 2017-2019. States were ranked from the smallest to the largest drop in life expectancy.
The suicide rate per 100,000 residents and fatal drug overdose rate per 100,000 residents also came from the CDC.
Data on COVID-19 cases and deaths was obtained from state and local health departments.
Population data comes from the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2019 American Community Survey.