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How Each NFL Team Will Finish This Season

How Each NFL Team Will Finish This Season

Week 5 of the NFL season was an eventful one — the Buffalo Bills emerged as one of the top teams in the league after going to Kansas City and demolishing the Chiefs 38-20. The Green Bay Packers and Los Angeles Chargers picked up statement wins over good teams to both move to 4-1, beating the Cincinnati Bengals and Cleveland Browns, respectively.

Elsewhere, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Los Angeles Rams looked dominant, while the Arizona Cardinals remained the only unbeaten team, moving to 5-0. These teams have shown they can win big games against top-notch opponents, establishing themselves as serious threats to make a deep playoff run.

To determine how each NFL team will finish the 2021 season, 24/7 Tempo reviewed FiveThirtyEight’s 2021 NFL Predictions, which are based on 50,000 simulated games and are updated after every game. The predictions are as of Oct. 12, 2021, and teams are ranked by their projected chance of winning the Super Bowl. Supplemental data came from Pro Football Reference.

While some teams have excelled, others have fallen back to the pack, or simply fallen apart. Injury, illness, and dysfunction have made it unlikely for some promising teams to make the playoffs. The Kansas City Chiefs slipped to 2-3 and lost running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire for weeks due to a knee injury. Other players like Russell Wilson, Saquon Barkley, Daniel Jones, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and more appear poised to miss significant time.

Perhaps the biggest NFL story of the week was Las Vegas Raiders coach Jon Gruden stepping down. Gruden resigned after the New York Times reported on a slew of offensive emails he sent in recent years that were seen by the league. The Raiders had started 3-0 but lost their last two games, significantly curbing their chances of making the playoffs.

Source: Julio Aguilar / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images

32. Jacksonville Jaguars
> Projected record: 3-14
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 0.9%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: <0.1%
> 2020 record: 1-15

Source: Quinn Harris / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images

31. Detroit Lions
> Projected record: 3-14
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 0.3%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: <0.1%
> 2020 record: 5-11

Source: Jason Miller / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images

30. Houston Texans
> Projected record: 4-13
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 3%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: <0.1%
> 2020 record: 4-12

Source: Patrick McDermott / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images

29. New York Jets
> Projected record: 5-12
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 2%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: <0.1%
> 2020 record: 2-14

Source: Tim Nwachukwu / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images

28. New York Giants
> Projected record: 5-12
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 6%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: <0.1%
> 2020 record: 6-10

Source: Maddie Meyer / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images

27. Miami Dolphins
> Projected record: 7-10
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 14%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: <0.1%
> 2020 record: 10-6

Source: Kevin C. Cox / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images

26. Atlanta Falcons
> Projected record: 7-10
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 11%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.2%
> 2020 record: 4-12

Source: Richard Rodriguez / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images

25. Philadelphia Eagles
> Projected record: 8-9
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 24%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.4%
> 2020 record: 4-11

Source: Rob Carr / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images

24. Washington Football Team
> Projected record: 7-10
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 18%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.4%
> 2020 record: 7-9

Source: Patrick McDermott / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images

23. Pittsburgh Steelers
> Projected record: 7-10
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 17%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.4%
> 2020 record: 12-4

Source: Ethan Miller / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images

22. Las Vegas Raiders
> Projected record: 8-9
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 32%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.5%
> 2020 record: 8-8

Source: Grant Halverson / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images

21. Carolina Panthers
> Projected record: 8-9
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 26%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.5%
> 2020 record: 5-11

Source: Jonathan Daniel / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images

20. Chicago Bears
> Projected record: 8-9
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 27%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.5%
> 2020 record: 8-8

Source: Adam Glanzman / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images

19. New England Patriots
> Projected record: 8-9
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 29%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.7%
> 2020 record: 7-9

Source: Justin Casterline / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images

18. Indianapolis Colts
> Projected record: 8-9
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 40%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.7%
> 2020 record: 11-5

Source: Andy Lyons / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images

17. Cincinnati Bengals
> Projected record: 8-9
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 35%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.7%
> 2020 record: 4-11

Source: Norm Hall / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images

16. Minnesota Vikings
> Projected record: 7-10
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 24%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.7%
> 2020 record: 7-9

Source: Dustin Bradford / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images

15. Denver Broncos
> Projected record: 9-8
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 42%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.8%
> 2020 record: 5-11

Source: Thearon W. Henderson / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images

14. San Francisco 49ers
> Projected record: 9-8
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 34%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 1%
> 2020 record: 6-10

Source: Ezra Shaw / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images

13. Seattle Seahawks
> Projected record: 8-9
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 31%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 1%
> 2020 record: 12-4

Source: Andy Lyons / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images

12. Tennessee Titans
> Projected record: 9-8
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 74%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 2%
> 2020 record: 11-5

Source: Chris Graythen / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images

11. New Orleans Saints
> Projected record: 10-7
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 58%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 3%
> 2020 record: 12-4

Source: Jamie Squire / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images

10. Kansas City Chiefs
> Projected record: 10-7
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 64%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 4%
> 2020 record: 14-2

Source: Justin K. Aller / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images

9. Cleveland Browns
> Projected record: 10-7
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 68%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 4%
> 2020 record: 11-5

Source: Stacy Revere / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images

8. Green Bay Packers
> Projected record: 11-6
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 82%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 5%
> 2020 record: 13-3

Source: Tom Pennington / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images

7. Dallas Cowboys
> Projected record: 11-6
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 85%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 5%
> 2020 record: 6-10

Source: Wesley Hitt / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images

6. Arizona Cardinals
> Projected record: 13-4
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 93%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 9%
> 2020 record: 8-8

Source: Kevork Djansezian / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images

5. Los Angeles Rams
> Projected record: 12-5
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 88%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 9%
> 2020 record: 10-6

Source: Harry How / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images

4. Los Angeles Chargers
> Projected record: 12-5
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 90%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 9%
> 2020 record: 7-9

Source: joeglo / Flickr

3. Baltimore Ravens
> Projected record: 12-5
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 91%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 11%
> 2020 record: 11-5

Source: Dylan Buell / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images

2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
> Projected record: 13-4
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 93%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 15%
> 2020 record: 11-5

Source: Timothy T Ludwig / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images

1. Buffalo Bills
> Projected record: 13-4
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 98%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 17%
> 2020 record: 13-3

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